Pick your Super Bowl pool like a pro

Or, you could apply the laws of statistics like the pros.

which covers fantasy sports and sports betting. Its name? “Prediction, Probability, and Pigskin.”

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“When you’re looking at numbers and trying to do predictions, you need lots and lots of numbers, lots of data,” says Dr. “I used to do a lot of research and modeling on NFL games and never got models that were sufficient to beat Vegas on a consistent basis.” He laments that one time he tried to number-crunch his way to victory in a college football pool, but was vanquished by a fellow academic who didn’t know a pigskin from a platypus.

(Editing by Beth Pinsker Gladstone; Editing by Dan Grebler)

“There is evidence that bettors like the ‘over’ bet because they prefer high-scoring games,” says Tracy Rishel, associate professor of management at Susquehanna University in Selinsgrove, Pennsylvania. You could try consulting a Ouija board. She should know: Rishel studied 190 NFL games in co-authoring the paper “The Determinants of Scoring in 2010 NFL Games and the Over/Under Line.”

Those numbers work, Ordine says, because they reflect point totals from the most common ways of scoring: touchdowns and field goals. Lackritz once calculated the odds of picking a perfect March Madness bracket at one in 10,000,000,000,000,000,000. With the average, you get a decimal. Motz, a contributor to the NFL online video series “Football Freakonomics,” (link.reuters.com/byt36s) remembers when his father took home Super Bowl pool winnings in the late 1990s. That’s assuming you start with a realistic range of point totals for both the Giants and Patriots, run through all possible combinations and then throw out unusual or impossible tallies, such as ties.

Another form of football gambling, sometimes used as a tiebreaker in pools, involves picking the winner and whether the point total goes above or below a threshold determined by Las Vegas oddsmakers. “Some pools even charge a premium for those spots.”

Asked how he would make sense of all those digits in his calculations, Motz replied: “I’d have to take a look at it, and flip a coin.”

“I would take New England and their record for the past three seasons, and what they are like when they play teams like the Giants,” he says. Pool participants pick squares by random or draft, and winners are awarded quarter-by-quarter, with the grand prize going to the person who nails those digits in the final score.

What would that look like? We asked a few experts to construct a winning game plan with a big Super Bowl pool on the line. And it should be the case that the mode is the median, but who knows?”

are his own.)


If your office pool is based on a random draw, fuggedaboutit. “Now if the Patriots and Giants played 30 times a year, you might have enough data to make a prediction. Jim Lackritz, a statistician and sports nut, calculates the probability of picking the Super Bowl’s final score at no better than 400-to-1. (That’s 10 quintillion, for those of you who can count that high.)

The grid pool is based on 100 squares, each one representing the final digits in both teams’ scores. This inspires him to at least take a crack at concocting a method for a repeat, and indeed, Motz sounds convincing – that is, up to a point.

(Reuters) – With Super Bowl XLVI less than a week away, armchair quarterbacks are flexing their biceps to throw hard-earned cash into the office pool. “And I would not take the average score, but the median score. But one time a year? That’s not enough.”

By Lou Carlozo

(The author is a Reuters contributor. You will probably do what a lot of people do, and rely on your gut to make your picks. Irvin Lustig, director of mathematical software for IBM and a football fan who attended the 2003 Super Bowl. But if you can pick the digits, then “there is someone handicapping what goes into this, and 3,4,7 and 0 are the magic numbers,” says Bill Ordine, an editor of PhillyGambles.com,

San Diego State University information systems professor Dr. REUTERS/Las Vegas Sun/Steve Marcus”/>

Which brings us back to the way all Super Bowl games start in the first place.

Despite the Hail Mary odds, it could be worse – much worse. Trouble is, “the game has changed a lot, and there’s a lot more offense than in the 1960s and 1970s,” says Ben Motz, a full-time lecturer at Indiana University who plans to inaugurate a new sports-cognitive science course this fall. “Neither of these teams have great defenses, and it’s likely to be a high-scoring game.”

Then there’s a family history of beating the odds. That number currently stands at 55, and it almost boils down to guessing the outcome.

. The opinions expressed

“He was from the Middle East,” he recalls.

Proposition bets (R) for Super Bowl XLV are posted at the race and sports book in the Las Vegas Hilton in Las Vegas, Nevada January 27, 2011.

“So it’s not so much taking the digits from past Super Bowls, but the digits from recent games involving the Giants and the Patriots,” Motz says. If those numbers get taken, Ordine also suggests 1, 8 and 6 as second-tier picks.


Credit: Reuters/Las Vegas Sun/Steve Marcus

You’ll find no end of grid gurus on the Internet, including those with models that reflect the score of every Super Bowl quarter in history. “Bookmakers are fully aware of bettor biases and may adjust the lines to take advantage,” she says.

Proposition bets (R) for Super Bowl XLV are posted at the race and sports book in the Las Vegas Hilton in Las Vegas, Nevada January 27, 2011. You might step it up a notch and research the odds being laid in Vegas. It's up to you to decide which strategy will give you the edge you are looking for, or if it's better to just pick your bets at random.</p>
<p>Tue Jan 31, 2012 9:34am EST</p>
<p>While mathematically possible to nail the score, “you’re not going to be able to do it,” Lackritz says</p>
	</div><!-- .entry-content -->
	</article><!-- #post-## -->

<article id=

Sports Bettor Billy Walter’s Winning Streak

Had no air conditioning. Small potatoes for Walters.

“By far. “Yes. So, how does a professional gambler approach the big game?

Walters just missed a 60-foot putt, but after only three holes, he was up $17,000. And he showed us how the hustle worked with Gene McCarlie, an old friend and casino owner.

“That’s a lot of money,” Logan remarked.

“How much money have you taken off him over the years?” Logan asked.

“What’s the price?” Walters asked.

“Five-to-one for birdie,” McCarlie replied.

He gambled on the Super Bowl last year and won $3.5 million. Nevada is the only state in the country where taking bets on individual games is legal. Now, he’s a very wealthy man,” Walters replied.. Most bettors come to a sports book inside the casino, to lay their bets, wagering $2.5 billion dollars every year.

Asked if there’s anything he doesn’t gamble on, Walters replied, “Not really.”

“Ten,” McCarlie said.

“He is,” both men replied simultaneously, laughing.

“You got it for a dime!” Walters agreed.

Walters has been almost as elusive as Howard Hughes, avoiding publicity, reluctant to reveal his secrets.

On the day we went along, the two buddies decided to play for $5,000 a hole, with a few side bets along the way.

“Who’s the better golfer?” correspondent Lara Logan asked Walters and McCarlie on a golf course.

Asked what his biggest win was on a round of golf, Walters said, “Probably a million bucks, around a million dollars.”

Copyright 2011 CBS. I never got to bed to with it. Believe me,” McCarlie added.

“I’ll take 15,” Walters countered.

“What’s the most you’ve ever made on a hole?” Logan asked.

When it comes to gambling, everybody knows the house has the advantage. But there are some high rollers who consistently win, and it’s hard to find anyone better at winning than Billy Walters.

He bets on football and basketball, is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and has been so successful that many Las Vegas bookmakers are afraid to even take his bets.

But after 30 years of unprecedented success, the man who calls himself a Kentucky hillbilly agreed for the first time to open the door into his betting life in Las Vegas – a life he describes as one long hustle – in betting parlors, in pool rooms and on the golf course.

The Gambler

Extra: The “Keyser Soze” of Las Vegas?

Extra: Billy Walters’ Analytics

Extra: The $3.5 Million Bet

When Walters golfs, it’s mostly for fun. I lost it all in the Horseshoe Hotel playing blackjack before I went to bed,” he replied.

The Super Bowl: America’s Biggest Bet

More people bet on the Super Bowl than any other sporting event. All rights reserved.

“Probably $400,000,” Walters said.

“When I met him, he was driving an old Cadillac full of bullet holes. He used to make his living off it

Conn. tribal gambling company expands into NJ

The Mohegan Sun’s Connecticut casino, which opened in 1996, already has a Buffett-themed restaurant.

But Gomes died in February and his son, Aaron, has been helping to run the casino.

Bailey said Tuesday that he and Dennis Gomes began searching for a management partner soon after they bought Resorts.

It also means Mohegan, which has its flagship casino in Connecticut and Pennsylvania’s Mohegan Sun at Pocono Downs, would have properties a few hours’ drive from New York City in three different directions — establishing it as an even bigger name-brand in the Northeast.

Etess said the company, which is also seeking a casino license in Massachusetts, would have shared marketing programs for its three casinos, though Resorts would not get a name change.

Last month, Resorts announced another new venture, teaming with Jimmy Buffett to develop a Margaritaville-branded entertainment complex in part of the casino. Buying into an existing casino he said, is far more affordable than buying one whole.

If regulators approve the plan, it would expand the reach of one of the nation’s main tribal casinos. Etess said at a news conference with Aaron Gomes sitting nearby that he hoped that Gomes and other current executives and lower-level employees would remain.

Resorts was sold in 2010 to Dennis Gomes and Morris Bailey for $31.5 million.

In a gambling world where customer loyalty is rewarded, Etess said a Mohegan connection would mean that the people who visit its other properties would likely stay and play at Resorts when they visit Atlantic City.

By taking over management of Resorts Casino Hotel, Mohegan becomes the first American Indian-run firm to expand into the established gambling destinations of Atlantic City and Las Vegas.

“The timing is right,” MTGA CEO Mitchell Etess said Tuesday in Atlantic City. –  The tribe that owns the Mohegan Sun casino extended its reach in the East on Tuesday by taking over operations of Atlantic City’s oldest casino, planting itself in the region’s gambling mecca as an alternative to luring tourists to its slot machines and poker tables in eastern Connecticut.

James Kamel, a casino industry analyst, said he expects Atlantic City’s 12 casinos to undergo consolidations. Coupled with a brewing recession, that spelled trouble for Atlantic City, which has seen gambling revenue dropping for six years.

Gomes, seen as a visionary in the industry, rebranded the casino in a roaring ’20′s theme to capitalize on the HBO series “Boardwalk Empire” about Atlantic City in the Prohibition era.

He said a bold citywide marketing campaign that invites people to “Do A.C.” and the May opening of the new Revel casino show the city is heading in the right direction, even as gambling revenues shrink.

Follow Geoff Mulvihill at http://www.twitter.com/geoffmulvihill

And UNLV’s Schwartz said the price is probably right for the company. Before, it was Indian casinos trying to attract investment and management from Las Vegas and Atlantic City.. By being in the city, he said, Mohegan sets itself up to be a player when that happens.

But in 2006, casino gambling came to nearby Pennsylvania. At the same time, the Mogehan Tribal Gaming Authority is trying to get a piece of the fledgling casino industry in Massachusetts.

The Jersey shore town flourished as a gambling resort for nearly 30 years, with revenues growing every year.

The company would also manage the casino, which has had a tumultuous run even by the tumultuous standards of Atlantic City over the past six years.

“It’s a total reversal in the way the capital and management is going,” said David Schwartz, director of the Center for Gaming Research at the University of Nevada at Las Vegas. outside of Las Vegas.

ATLANTIC CITY, N.J. “We have long looked at the Atlantic City market as an excellent opportunity.”


Under the deal, Mohegan would invest an undisclosed sum in Resorts, where the Art Deco building in 1978 became the first place to gamble legally in the U.S

Sports Betting | Examiner.com

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Bookies Betting Pope Francis Will Win This Year’s Nobel Peace Prize

10), according to British bookmaker William Hill. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon.

The 77-year-old was also outspoken on his visit to the Middle East this year calling for an end to the conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians and praying beside the controversial concrete wall that separates Jerusalem from Bethlehem.

In June, he hosted a high-level prayer summit between Israeli President Shimon Peres and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and pressed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to scale back attacks during this summer’s bloody conflict in Gaza.

But the pope is also facing a late challenge from Malala Yousafzai, the Pakistani who survived a near-fatal shooting by the Taliban on her way to school in 2012.

“The betting suggests Pope Francis is in pole position to win the Nobel Peace Prize — he’s the hot ticket,” said Ivan-Duke.

The pontiff’s odds have fallen from 11-4 in a sign of his worldwide popularity.

Correction: An earlier version of this wire story listed Benjamin Netanyahu as Israel’s President. Irish bookmaker Paddy Power also considers him a leading contender.

“When the odds get shorter, that’s when you sit up and pay attention,” said Jon Ivan-Duke, spokesman for William Hill. “However, there’s a late gamble on last year’s favorite, Yousafzai, and she could be a real challenger to the Holy Father.”

When the brutal attack provoked an international outcry, Islamic clerics in Pakistan issued a fatwa against her attackers, but the Taliban reaffirmed its intent to kill Yousafzai as she recovered in the U.K.

“Snowden has created as many fans as critics and would be a rather controversial choice,” said Ivan-Duke.

VATICAN CITY (RNS) Pope Francis is tipped to win this year’s Nobel Peace Prize, according to some of the world’s leading bookmakers.

The Argentinian pope is currently the 5-2 favorite to win the award, which will be announced by the Nobel Institute in Oslo, Norway, on Friday (Oct. He is the country’s Prime Minister.

Since he was elected in March 2013, the Jesuit pontiff has called for peace in areas of conflict including Iraq, Syria and Ukraine.

Now a human rights activist, Yousafzai has seen her odds halved from 20-1 to 10-1 but the pope is still ahead of her.

Nevertheless, Francis is facing stiff competition from National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden and U.N. “Maybe there’s some divine inspiration at work.”

How to Win at Black Jack

If you want to make sure the dealer has your best interests at heart, place the tip right in front of your wagering circle, essentially turning it into a side bet on your hand. You tip well enough and you’ll keep winning, but pit bosses catch on to this quick so if you’re going to toke big, toke and leave to another casino.

Here are some basic rules you can follow to have statistics in your favor while playing:

Always gamble responsibly, this guide does not guarantee sucess in Black Jack/ 21. This article is about single deck blackjack.

If you are at a casino Then there is one thing that can really help you out. The Dealer has to stand on any total of 17 or more and hits on anything less giving the player a considerable advantage.

Always respect your areas law’s and age restrictions in relation to gambling.. Your next move should depend on what card the dealer is showing.

-If your first two cards are equal to ten or less you always hit for another card. Even if you don’t understand the variation it will still most likely help your chances of winning.

Blackjack or “21″ is a game found in every decent casino. If you win, the dealer’s tip doubles.

Tips & Warnings


If you’re lucky youre dealer may ‘tip’ the odds in your favour. If You get 11 and there are no card of face value ten or more on the table then the odds are not in your favor to hit.

-No matter what card the Dealer is showing you must always assume that the dealer has a ten face down.

-If your cards total 12-16 this is the danger zone. Remember, the dealer must stay on 17.

-If you have cards valued between 17 to 20 you should never draw another card. Unless you’re winning serious stakes, a dollar chip every twenty or so hands is generally appropriate. If you don’t land 21 then your goal is to beat out the dealer. Never gamble what you can not afford to lose.

The only prequisites for this article is either money, if you are playing in a real casino, or a set of cards.

Step 1

BlackJack Strategy:

The object of the game BlackJack is to get 21, or as close to 21 as you can without going over (commonly known as going bust). The only exception is if you have a soft hand [meaning you have an ace plus another card, since an ace can be 1 or 11]

BlackJack Tips:

Things You Will Need

Also never pick a table with a min bet higher then 5% of your total gambling money[your stash]. They are not unionized, work for lousy wages, and depend on your generosity. If there are tables with rule variations they almost always work in your favor like doubling down on any two cards, or the dealer having to stand on soft 17. If the dealer has a card between 2 and 6 then you should stay. If the dealer has a card showing between 7 to an Ace you should draw until you are over 16. Tip (or “toke”) the dealer. There are a few methods to increase your odds of coming out a winner

Learning a Snow Sport With the Kids

Students 18 and under get a free season pass; adults get a free 12-day pass. 

Click here for more from Taking the Kids, and also follow “taking the kids” on www.twitter.com, where Eileen Ogintz welcomes your questions and comments.)

Vail Mountain, the country’s largest ski resort, has just announced Ski Girls Rock, a new program inspired and designed by Olympic gold medalist and World Alpine Ski Champion Lindsey Vonn. Exclusively for girls age 5 to 15, the program runs during selective weeks this ski season. If you are all beginners — maybe opt for a new-style girlfriends’ trip — Alta Ski Area’s First-time Skiers package includes four two-hour lessons, four beginner lift tickets and four days of rental equipment, all for $179. See you on the slopes. 

Sounds good to me! Women quit snow sports because they don’t want to chase after hard-skiing spouses or kids. And like Vonn’s initiative, it’s designed to be about more than skiing. And for $199 you or your kids get five lessons, five rental packages and five lift tickets. It’s especially gratifying to see resorts aiming at girls and women who typically drop out of snow sports before becoming accomplished skiers and riders. 

“We want more women to be on the mountain having a good time whatever their level,” said Flinn Ware. At the same time, Liftopia, the largest online marketplace for discounted lifts and mountain activities, has created a new deal engine app for the iPhone and iPod touch. The lessons, based on availability, will be available on non-holiday dates for the entire month of January. They can also get the 411 from the coaches on everything from kid-friendly restaurants to where to book a massage.

There’s nothing like a New Year’s resolution you can actually keep. 

Look for packages from major websites like www.ski.com that will save you significant bucks if you book air, lodging and lifts together. They quit because they don’t have the energy after getting everyone else in their family situated. That’s the spirit. All of the deals aren’t in January, either. Even a few tumbles in her lesson couldn’t dim her enthusiasm. Look for kids ski-free packages. Now trips to the slopes can be more fun for mom and more affordable, especially with all of the Learn a Snow Sport deals. 

January is National Learn a Snow Sport Month and more than 200 resorts are pulling out all the stops for families and offering free or discounted ski, snowboard, and cross-country ski and snowshoe lessons for beginners. “We want to take care of them after they’ve taken care of everyone else.” 

At Park City Mountain Resort, meanwhile, where Snowmamas.com started and where no class has more than five students, there’s a new two-hour Ladies Club that’s just an hour shorter than a regular group lesson but half the price ($55 to $60, depending on season). Go to Aspen/Snowmass in March and April and kids ski and ride free, as long as an adult is buying a lift ticket. 

At Mt.

No worries if someone in your family faces special challenges, either. They quit because they’d rather vacation somewhere that requires less work on their part. (At many resorts, a lift ticket alone costs nearly $100.) . Just make sure to fill out the paperwork in advance. 

“You’re never too old to challenge yourself,” said Guthmann, 44, the mother of three, whose spirit of adventure landed her a spot on this year’s panel of Snowmamas, the go-to site for making trips to the slopes easier and more fun for moms of all ages. 

“This is giving women a couple of hours for themselves,” explains Mary Flinn Ware, the director of the Park City Mountain Resort children’s ski school who piloted this program last spring. Coming  later this year: San Diego, San Francisco and Denver.


SnoVenture fun at Squaw Valley. (Nathan Kendall)

In Vermont, Ski Vermont is touting an unprecedented $29 package for first-time skiers and snowboarders at several resorts across the Green Mountain State. Taught by women coaches, the program is designed to show women, whatever their ability, places on the mountain they didn’t know existed and where they can feel comfortable. There are a lot of multi-day women’s ski and snowboarding clinics out there, but nothing like this. 

Eileen Ogintz is a nationally syndicated columnist and creator of TakingtheKids.com. As for Andrea Guthmann, she’s looking forward to a spring trip with her kids to Park City. The small classes ($279 a day, including lifts and lunch) led by female coaches will focus not only on skills but on empowering girls through sport. 

Just ask Chicago mom Andrea Guthmann, who resolved to embrace new challenges. Her new  Kids Guide to Boston is available online and from major booksellers, along with the Kids Guides to NYC, Washington, DC, Orlando,  LA and Chicago. Several states also offer “passports” for kids of certain ages, which allow them to ski free — fourth-graders in New York; fifth-graders in Colorado and Vermont; fourth- and fifth-graders in New Hampshire, fifth- and sixth-graders in Utah, and fifth-, sixth- and seventh-graders in Maine. She’s already planning a return trip with her husband and kids. 

At Park City’s gargantuan Canyon’s Resort families who book their trip at one of the official lodging properties of Canyons Resort get accommodations, lifts, and a resort credit of up to $200 per night and access to off-slope adventures (zip-line anybody?) — all starting at $311 per night for a family of four, less than what lift tickets alone might cost. Steamboat in Northern Colorado has long been an innovator for families with Kids Ski Free, Kids Fly Free and Kids Rent Free programs. “I’m excited,” she says. There are many adaptive programs around the country, including the National Sports Center for the Disabled in Winter Park, Colo.; the Breckenridge Outdoor Education Center also in Colo.; the National Ability Center in Park City, Utah and Vermont Adaptive Ski and Sports. Bachelor in Bend, Ore., the largest ski resort in the Cascade Range, kids 18 — yes 18! and under, can ski free, if an adult in their family purchases a multi-day ticket. So, just before the holidays, she took a ski lesson at Park City Mountain Resort , her first foray on the slopes in more than a decade

Sports Betting | Examiner.com

NFL Week 6 picks

After going 2-3 yesterday — thanks Duke and UTSA — it is time for NFL Sunday. In the betting world, we make no excuses for picks we miss on. We handicap the games, make smart picks, and sometimes things just do not work out. We simply move on to…

GameAccount Launches Tournament Blackjack at G2E; Skill-Gaming’s Killer Application for Sportsbook, Casino & Poker Operators

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In this exciting skill-based version of Blackjack, players engage in ‘Heads-Up!’ play against online opponents, never directly against the ‘House’. GameAccount powers leading online partners such as Sportingbet, BetCORP, Fortune Lounge, Paddypower.com, Sky Bet (BSkyB), FHM.com, Maxim, Wanadoo and The Sun.

GameAccount will be exhibiting at the Global Gaming Expo at the Las Vegas Convention Center, September 13-15, 2005 in Las Vegas, NV, USA.

For more information please visit: www.gameaccount.com.

Andy Bell, Casino & Gaming Manager for GameAccount licensee BetCORP Plc (operators of BetWWTS.com and CyberSportsbook.com), “Tournament Blackjack represents a compelling opportunity for sportsbook, casino and poker operators to generate incremental revenues from existing customers and re-activate lapsed customers with an exciting and instantly recognisable skill-based gaming opportunity. Starting with an imaginary chip stack of $10,000, your objective is to build a larger chip stack than your opponent with the exact same sequence of cards dealt to both players and the automated in-game dealer. The company’s proven portfolio of dynamic games attracts recreational gamers and is the perfect vehicle to build and sustain a broad user audience. Multiplayer games include Gin Rummy, Pool and Backgammon. This represents a compelling opportunity for new and veteran players of Blackjack to demonstrate their own ‘edge’ instead of competing directly against the traditional ‘House’ edge.

About GameAccount

If you would like to meet with GameAccount, please contact Matt Welch or Dermot Smurfit at Booth 5122 in the iGaming Business Pavilion.

“Adding GameAccount’s unique blend of Skill Games is a superb opportunity for eGaming operators not only from a revenue perspective but also due to the fact that advertising Skill Games is legal in most of the United States and the rest of the world,” says Meir Moses, Marketing Manager at GameAccount. We’re very excited about GameAccount’s Tournament Blackjack and its potential to be skill-gaming’s killer application for eGaming operators generating serious money, very quickly”. 13, 2005–GameAccount, the #1 online P2P and skill gaming provider (www.gameaccount.com), this week officially launched “Tournament Blackjack”, a unique person-to-person (P2P) skill-based adaptation of the ever popular casino game. “GameAccount’s proven P2P & Skill Gaming solutions allow eGaming operators to build their brand and reputation within key jurisdictions unencumbered by the legal or regulatory considerations applicable to traditional gaming products.”

Tournament Blackjack launched with a wide variety of instant-action cash tournaments catering to both the casual gamer and the veteran Blackjack player